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Sahboun, N. F.; Matsumoto, Toshinori; Iwasawa, Yuzuru; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 15 Pages, 2021/10
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2021/10
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is extensively used, e.g., in periodical safety review and the reactor oversight process, in nuclear regulation systems to improve the safety of nuclear power plants; however, one limitation of classical PRA is the handling of temporal information such as system failure and core damage timings. To resolve this limitation, the dynamic PRA method has been developed and applied for multiple safety issues; however, its improvement is accompanied by considerable computational costs. In this study, we applied the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to dynamic PRA with the expectation of reduction in computational cost. In particular, to estimate core damage timing, a PCE-based surrogate model was developed. Then, the surrogate model was applied to dynamic PRA to calculate the conditional core damage probability and core damage timing. Consequently, applying the PCE might efficiently perform these analyses without considerable reduction in accuracy.
Shimada, Kazumasa; Iijima, Masashi*; Watanabe, Masatoshi*; Takahara, Shogo
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 17 Pages, 2021/10
The radiation doses received by the off-site responders in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident were assessed. Atmospheric dispersion simulation was conducted with the source term of the previous research to calculate the atmospheric concentration and ground surface deposition in the municipalities where off-site responders actives. The external exposure dose from cloudshine and groundshine, the internal exposure dose due to inhalation of radioactive plume and resuspended radio nuclei, and the temporal and spatial distribution within each municipality were assessed. As a result of comparing the assessed values of the external exposure dose with the measured values of the personal dosimeter, the measured values were within the assessed range. As a result of our assessment with internal dose exposure, if the exposures occurred without protective measures, the potential daily effective dose in the period between 12 and 31 March 2011 were several tens mSv per day or more in the relatively high dose area. Therefore, to keep the doses received by the responders below the reference level of 20 mSv recommended by the ICRP, it is necessary to ensure that the protective measures for internal exposures such as masks are taken, and to manage the time spent for their activity at least daily.
Nishino, Hiroyuki; Onoda, Yuichi; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2021/10
The objective of this study is to develop an effectiveness evaluations technology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures against excessive earthquake by introducing the fracture control concept. After analyzing event tree in previous studies of PRA against earthquake, this study identified sequences of protected loss of heat sink and loss of reactor level induced from excessive earthquake as accident sequences in which improving resilience of nuclear structures become effective. This study focused on important components for safety (e.g., reactor vessel, air coolers, pipes of primary loops in decay heat removal systems, etc.) to be used as countermeasures for improving the resilience. Core damage frequency is selected as an index in evaluating effectiveness of the measures for improving the resilience. Seismic safety margin of the components is assumed to be enlarged when the measures for improving the resilience with the fracture control concept are implemented. Through the trial calculation, reduction effect of the core damage frequency was quantified. The result showed that the measures for improving the resilience are significantly effective for decreasing the core damage frequency in excessive earthquake twice higher than a design basis ground motion. The general concept for the effectiveness evaluations technology was formulated.
Onoda, Yuichi; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2021/10
The effectiveness evaluations technology of the measures for improving resilience by applying a fracture control concept under ultra-high temperature conditions has developed for prototype sodium-cooled fast reactor Monju as a model plant, and the trial evaluation has conducted using this technology in this paper. The important accident sequences to which the fracture control concept is expected to be applied under ultra-high temperature condition are identified by investigating the results of the existing researches of level-2 probabilistic risk assessment for Monju. Accident sequences categorized in protected loss of heat sink and loss of reactor level are both identified as such important accident sequences which has the potential to prevent core damage. This study has developed the technology to evaluate the effectiveness of improving resilience, where the headings which stand for success or failure of the measures to improve resilience are introduced into the event tree, the branch probability of them is set, and the effectiveness of improving resilience is expressed as the reduction of core damage frequency. As a result of the trial evaluation of the effectiveness for the measures to improve resilience, it is confirmed that core damage frequency can be reduced by applying fracture control concept. The branch probability of the measures to improve resilience proposed in this study is tentatively assigned based on the assumption. This value is expected to be quantified by the forthcoming analyses of the integrity for the reactor vessel structure at ultra-high temperature. The technology developed in this study will be applied for the evaluation of improving resilience of the next generation sodium-cooled fast reactor.